Canada is on the path towards concerning COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations according to COVID-19 modelling revealed by the country’s top health officials on Friday.
The loosening of pandemic restrictions throughout provinces and territories paired with slowing vaccination rates and the rapid spread of the delta variant has generated concern among health officials.
“This updated longer-range forecast shows how the epidemic trajectory may evolve through early September. It suggests that we are at the start of the Delta driven fourth wave but that the trajectory will depend on ongoing increase in fully vaccinated coverage and the timing, pace and extent of re-opening,” said Chief Public Health Officer of Canada Dr. Theresa Tam.
The seven-day rolling average for cases is 93% lower than the peak of the third wave, although a resurgence in cases has been recorded.
“Not surprisingly the majority of cases, hospitalizations and fatal outcomes are occurring among unvaccinated people,” said Tam.
“There have been relatively few cases reported in people that have received at least one dose of COVID-19 and fewer still among those who are fully vaccinated.”
Canada’s previous success battling COVID-19 has prompted many provinces to loosen their health measures, however, the recent figures suggest the changes may be too soon.
“This forecast reaffirms the need to take a cautious approach to relaxing public health measures, to remain vigilant and responsive to signs of resurgence and to continue to increase first and second dose vaccine coverage,” Tam said.
Long-term forecasts indicate a resurgence of cases is likely this Fall and Winter when restrictive measures and individual precautions are lifted.
“Canada has made great progress on increasing vaccine coverage over the last month, but we need more eligible people vaccinated.”
